Carbon emission estimation and peak planning are effective local attempts to materialize nation ‘s “dual-carbon” objective. This paper, based on the connection between carbon emission estimation and carbon peaking forecast,estimates Jiangsu ‘s carbon emission from energy consumption, industrial and agricultural production and waste disposal,overviews the phased features of regional carbon emission, energy use and industrial structures, and uses Kaya formula to set up key factors,which are employed to forecast the developing potential of population, economic growth and energy structures. Carbon reduction paths and carbon peaking plans are designed under low, middle and high carbon peaking scenarios. Jiangsu ‘s carbon emission from 2005 to 2019 shows a fluctuated increment at a gentle speed, and increases by 1.11 times, mainly contributed by high-carbon energy and industrial structures, up to 90% from energy consumption and industrial production, along with rice planting and solid waste incineration. Future carbon emission is closely related to population, economic growth, energy intensity, energy structure. Among three carbon peaking scenarios from 2020 to 2030, Jingsu ‘s carbon emission will peak at 1.026 billion tons in 2027 in low constraint plan, three years earlier than in middle and high constraint plans with extra reduction of 0.054 and 0.112 billion tons respectively. Low constraint plan is consistent with international rules, favorable for achieving carbon reduction and carbon neutralization. This paper suggests controlling carbon increment scale, promoting implementation of low constraint plan, focusing on clean replacement of renewable energy and low carbon technical applications of manufacturing, transportation, construction and agriculture while maintaining economic stability.

This paper determines the function values of Yongtai county ecological system in Dazhangxi river basin in water supply, electrical supply, production, tourism, atmosphere conditioning, water reserve and flood prevention, pollution reduction and biological habitat, and uses market values, travel expense, alternative market values and shade engineering to evaluate its service function values. Its gross service values reach 14.987 billion RMB of Yongtai county ecological system in 2017, of which production contributes the most, up to 7.278 billion, the core function, then followed by pollution reduction, water reserve and flood prevention, atmosphere conditioning, biological habitat, tourism, electrical supply and water supply, in a descending order, showing the contribution of Dazhangxi. This paper presents suggestions on developing river basin ecological tourism, improving electrical and water supply function values based on Dazhangxi's situation and features.